The real estate market in Canada has performed well over the last few years but it could have resulted in a bubble that is ready to burst.
The Canadian residential sector has continued healthy despite the economic mortgage crisis that affected the US, and the forecasted nationwide real estate market bubble has yet to materialize. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) program to stimulate credit by approving high-risk mortgages had concerned experts because it pushed the ratio of housing values to a 7.4:1 ratio, which was over 50% more than American consumers experienced prior to their housing bubble collapse. As a consequence of the CMHC's policy shift, the average Canadian family debt experienced a 9.3 percent increase in only one year.
Some analysts, like the 84-year-old investment advisor Stephen Jarislowsky -- who has an estimated worth $1.85 billion -- said earlier this year that he believed that the strategy used by the CMHC would backfire. Jarislowsky flatly contradicted the statements made by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty claiming that the indications did not point to a future real estate bubble. Jarislowsky firmly believed that the government's programs were not going to strengthen the economy. During a phone conversation, he said that the CMHC "..has created the reverse effect of what was acceptable. " They have basically persuaded people to buy houses based on cheap mortgages. Evidence can be witnessed in the City of Toronto where the value of Toronto properties as increased by quite a bit over the years as purchasers rushed into the market.
An in-depth study of the Canadian real estate sector performed by the Wall Street Journal in February 2010 pointed out that the 2008 failure of the Lehman Brothers in the U.S. could have built a housing bubble backfire if the Canadian government did not change their lending tactics. But as early as January 2010, a representative of the Bank of Canada explained that "if the Bank were to increase interest rates to cool the housing market" that the result would be like "dousing the entire Canadian economy with cold water, just as it comes out from recession".
The Canadian Real Estate Association numbers that were released for the first half of 2010 does show that the start of the recession in 2008 translated into a sharp decline in residential real estate sales. But this did not last long, and the recovery has not been as dramatic as anticipated. Even though the May 2010 sales figures indicated a 9.5% drop, the year-over-year price increases actually balanced it to 8.4 percent. This stabilization in the housing market is a normal result of buyers not being quite as anxious to invest as the supply of properties increases and prices climb slowly, but proportionately.
Pascal Gauthier of the Toronto-Dominion Bank mentioned that the bubble scenario "made a lot of people nervous," fearing a huge crash comparable to the 30% decline in U.S. housing values. This summer, however, he is observing that the short-term elements that elevated property values resulted in only a modest decline in a clearly overpriced market and the attitude is a "180-degree change from six months ago". Gauthier believes that the national average may feel a 7 percent drop, but that the areas such as Toronto and Vancouver will bear the brunt of that decrease, and some areas such as The Prairies and Maritimes could even begin to realize gains by the end of the year.
By Stefan Hyross
Published: 7/13/2010
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