Garry Marr, Financial Post · Thursday, Jul. 15, 2010
Existing home sales continued their rapid decline last month, with 70% of markets showing a drop in sales in June from May, the Canadian Real Estate Association says.
But at least one senior executive in the industry says market watchers need a little perspective about the real estate sector.
“The pace we had seen couldn’t be sustained. It’s important to have a word of caution when you talk about it slowing down,” said Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada.
“This is by no stretch a buyer’s market. At best it’s a balanced market in the majority of markets. People are not out there giving their houses away yet.”
Ottawa-based CREA, which represents 100 boards across the country, said sales were off 8.2% from a month ago on a seasonally adjusted basis. Toronto and Calgary led the decline.
CREA said tighter mortgage rules and rising rates were behind a 13.3% drop in sales over the past quarter.
“As expected, these two national factors contributed to a widespread decline in activity, with transactions down in all but a dozen or so smaller markets,” CREA said.
Sales activity was down 19.7% in June from a year ago, when there was a record number of sales for the month.
Actual second-quarter sales were down 2.8% from a year ago but for the year are still up 13.6%.
There was a slowdown in Canadians putting homes up for sale, which should be good for the market and prices. The number of new listings on the market in June dropped 6.8% from May.
But year-over-year price increases are starting to slow. CREA said the national average sales price rose just 4.9% from a year ago to $342,662.
CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said there could be help on the way for prices in the coming months. “While the pricing environment is becoming more challenging, a recovering economy and job market will provide support for housing activity and prices,” he said.
The number of months of inventory in the market, which represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, is also rising. It was 5.7 months across the country at the end of June, up from 4.2 months a year ago.
“The housing market is becoming more challenging for sellers,” said Georges Pahud, CREA president. “Buyers are in less of a hurry.”
Economist Adrienne Warren of the Bank of Nova Scotia said the market has peaked.
“Canada’s housing market has clearly shifted gears, with monthly sales [seasonally adjusted] now running about 25% below last December’s peak,” she said. “The sense of urgency see n last fall and winter in the lead-up to tighter mortgage-lending criteria and the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia has faded.”
Financial Post
Showing posts with label market slowdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market slowdown. Show all posts
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Canadian real estate: A soft landing or something worse?
CTV News - July 16, 2010
Michael Babad
These are stories Report on Business is following today. Get the top business stories through the day on BlackBerry or iPhone by bookmarking our mobile-friendly webpage.
Housing market pace slows
Canada's housing market is cooling off after its record-setting pace in the post-recession period. The Canadian Real Estate Association said today existing home sales fell 8.2 per cent in June from a month earlier, largely because of a slower pace in Toronto and Calgary. The national average resale price dipped 1.2 per cent, to $342,662, from May's record $346,881. That's still almost 5 per cent above last year's prices. Here are the views of four economists:
Adrienne Warren, Bank of Nova Scotia: "We expect to see a further slowing in sales over the second half of the year as interest rates gradually drift up. (It should be noted, however, that sales are still at a historically high level despite this year’s pullback, supported by improving employment conditions and still-low borrowing costs.) While this in turn will likely put some further modest downward pressure on prices, listings are also beginning to trend lower, which will help to maintain a fairly healthy balance between buyers and sellers."
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + Associates: "The Canadian housing market at one point during last year's parabolic surge in sales and pricing got as much as 20 per cent overvalued. In recent months, demand has weakened under the weight of eroding homeowner affordability. At the same time, the rush of new construction has elevated the supply side of the equation. and so what falls out these shifting demand and supply curves is a reduction in prices - the long awaited correction is here. Remember - excesses in one direction are generally followed by excesses in the other direction. And bubbles never correct by going sideways. In a nutshell, there's more air to come out of this Canadian housing balloon."
Douglas Porter, BMO Nesbitt Burns: "By some appearances, Canadian home sales have done their best impression of a capsized canoe in the wake of the new tighter mortgage insurance rules and the modest back-up in borrowing costs in the spring. Sales were also front-end loaded in 2010 ahead of the [harmonized sales tax] and are now in rapid reverse. While the headlines may look soggy for the next few months, there are reasons to believe the market could soon regain its balance - long-term mortgage rates have dropped, employment remains on a roll, and prices have stabilized."
Pascal Gauthier, Toronto-Dominion Bank: "After improving markedly in 2008, home affordability eroded significantly in 2009. With the typical lag, this is naturally slowing the pace of sales. Nonetheless, the housing market slowdown should be cushioned by an improving employment and income picture. The level of interest rates remains quite supportive of sales activity, and rising interest rates would only occur against a stronger overall economic backdrop."
Michael Babad
These are stories Report on Business is following today. Get the top business stories through the day on BlackBerry or iPhone by bookmarking our mobile-friendly webpage.
Housing market pace slows
Canada's housing market is cooling off after its record-setting pace in the post-recession period. The Canadian Real Estate Association said today existing home sales fell 8.2 per cent in June from a month earlier, largely because of a slower pace in Toronto and Calgary. The national average resale price dipped 1.2 per cent, to $342,662, from May's record $346,881. That's still almost 5 per cent above last year's prices. Here are the views of four economists:
Adrienne Warren, Bank of Nova Scotia: "We expect to see a further slowing in sales over the second half of the year as interest rates gradually drift up. (It should be noted, however, that sales are still at a historically high level despite this year’s pullback, supported by improving employment conditions and still-low borrowing costs.) While this in turn will likely put some further modest downward pressure on prices, listings are also beginning to trend lower, which will help to maintain a fairly healthy balance between buyers and sellers."
David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff + Associates: "The Canadian housing market at one point during last year's parabolic surge in sales and pricing got as much as 20 per cent overvalued. In recent months, demand has weakened under the weight of eroding homeowner affordability. At the same time, the rush of new construction has elevated the supply side of the equation. and so what falls out these shifting demand and supply curves is a reduction in prices - the long awaited correction is here. Remember - excesses in one direction are generally followed by excesses in the other direction. And bubbles never correct by going sideways. In a nutshell, there's more air to come out of this Canadian housing balloon."
Douglas Porter, BMO Nesbitt Burns: "By some appearances, Canadian home sales have done their best impression of a capsized canoe in the wake of the new tighter mortgage insurance rules and the modest back-up in borrowing costs in the spring. Sales were also front-end loaded in 2010 ahead of the [harmonized sales tax] and are now in rapid reverse. While the headlines may look soggy for the next few months, there are reasons to believe the market could soon regain its balance - long-term mortgage rates have dropped, employment remains on a roll, and prices have stabilized."
Pascal Gauthier, Toronto-Dominion Bank: "After improving markedly in 2008, home affordability eroded significantly in 2009. With the typical lag, this is naturally slowing the pace of sales. Nonetheless, the housing market slowdown should be cushioned by an improving employment and income picture. The level of interest rates remains quite supportive of sales activity, and rising interest rates would only occur against a stronger overall economic backdrop."
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)