Credit Scores May Hamper Housing Comeback

Taken from The Wall Street Journal

By Phil Izzo

Homeownership is potentially out of reach for nearly a third of Americans, according to a new report that highlights the difficulties in the housing market in the wake of the Great Recession.

Bloomberg News

Potential home buyers may be among the hardest hit by the recession.People with a credit score below 620 who went searching for a loan were unlikely to receive even one quote, according to real-estate web site Zillow.com, even if they offered a down payment of 15%-25%. Zillow notes that 29% of Americans has a credit score this low, according to data provided by myFICO.com.

“Today’s tighter credit is a predictable response by banks after the foreclosure crisis, but also keeps a cap on housing demand, which is important for the greater housing market recovery,” said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries.

While banks may be right to try to avoid repeating mistakes made during the housing bubble, an over-reliance on credit scores could create problems for the real-estate market. Banks shouldn’t be giving mortgages to borrowers who can’t afford to pay them back, but if people with sizeable down payments and solid sources of income are being turned down because of credit scores, that’s not healthy, either.

Many factors influence credit scores. A temporary spell of unemployment and the resultant hardship can easily push them down. According to a new report from the Pew Research Center, the majority of Americans may find themselves in this situation. Pew separates its respondents into two groups, one that “held its own” — 45%, a number similar to myFico’s estimated 47% of Americans who have the best credit scores (over 720) — during the recession and another that “lost ground” — 55%.

The Pew report’s demographic breakdown may be even more troubling for housing. Those who “held their own” tended to be older people who already owned homes. Real Time Economics recently noted a potential “shadow demand” for housing from people who postponed plans to form new households in the wake of the recession, but that pool of potential homeowners was also more likely to have lost ground during the recession. According to Pew, 69% of people age 18-49 and 60% of those 30-49 lost ground.

It’s likely that those groups, who are the most likely first-time and move-up home buyers, took a hit to their credit scores during the recession. Zillow’s data indicate that even if they’ve recovered from the worst, the may not be able to get a mortgage, and if they do, they also are more likely to face higher interest rates.

Perspectives: Canada Sidesteps the Worst of the Financial Crisis

August 30, 2010 BestWire Services Email Print Free Newsletter

Financial institutions in developed nations worldwide reeled from the effects of the financial crisis that began in September 2008. But Canada and its life insurers escaped the worst of the crisis.

Canada's financial-services regulatory framework and positive relationships between regulators and companies all played a role in insulating life insurers from the adverse effects of the recession, according to Frank Swedlove, president of the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association.

But the nature of the Canadian economy mattered, too.

"The Canadian economy itself has proven more stalwart through the financial crisis, in part because it entered the recession in better shape fiscally, with less debt-to-gross domestic product and smaller deficits," said Dean Connor, chief operating officer of Sun Life Financial.

A primary reason for the Canada's economic strength was that the housing bubble--the centerpiece of the United States' recession--was not as big an issue in Canada, Connor said. "We have shorter-term mortgages, and mortgage interest is not tax-deductible, so you didn't see the kind of leverage in the housing market here that we did in the U.S.," he said. "And although the economy in Canada slowed last year, it has rebounded faster and is in pretty good shape."

To judge the housing markets' impact on insurers' portfolios in Canada and the United States, one need look no further than Sun Life's Canadian and American businesses. Because of mortgage-backed securities in the portfolio of Sun Life's U.S. subsidiary, the parent company in Canada had to make capital contributions to it the past two years, reducing financial flexibility for the group, according to July's A.M. Best Credit Report for Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada (U.S.).

Connor said commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities have been common and important investments for U.S. life companies, including Sun Life. Canadian life companies were invested in real estate and mortgages to a lesser extent, so their credit experience was much better, he said.

Stephen Irwin, vice president in the life/health ratings division of A.M. Best, said that the subprime and Alt-A types of mortgage securities so prevalent in the United States did not exist to the same extent in Canada because of better mortgage underwriting standards. Meanwhile, mortgage underwriting in Canada remained disciplined, said Richard McMillan, managing senior financial analyst at A.M. Best. And a few years ago, in reaction to weakening conditions in the housing market, the Canadian government refused to provide government insurance on longer amortizing loans.

"You could say there was some restraint by the regulators that helped to keep the market more reasonable than it was in the U.S.," he said.

As a result, Canada for the most part avoided a run-up in property values that occurred in many parts of the United States, McMillan said.

Other factors were also at play. One is the role played by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada's primary regulator and supervisor of federally regulated deposit-taking institutions, insurance companies and federally regulated private pension plans. Connor said OSFI oversees the operations of Canadian life insurers wherever they do business.